Where does Africa stand amid change?

03 Mar, 2017 - 00:03 0 Views
Where does Africa stand amid change? Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and USA President Donald Trump

The ManicaPost

RUDOLF du Plessis says 2017 will be an unusual year for Africa as its largest trading partners, China and America, are undergoing major transitions.

If the first two months are anything to go by, 2017 will be an unusual year for Africa as two of its largest trading partners, China and America, are undergoing major political and economic transitions.

China continues to slow as it transitions from an export-led to a consumer-driven economy. Donald Trump has been sworn in as US president, promising to “make America great again” by curbing foreign imports, curtailing immigration and cutting aid to its allies.

What these two developments mean for Africa is uncertain, but if Chinese and American rhetoric is to be believed, the implications could be far-reaching.

Last month China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, visited the Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia. These countries have received some of the largest amounts of Chinese foreign direct investment.

The purpose of the visit was to reaffirm China’s commitment to African development and to implement the pledges made at the Forum on China-Africa Co-operation in 2015.

This year’s visit, however, was different for two reasons.

First, it is clear that China is seeking to extend its engagement in Africa beyond the extractive sectors, a trend that began in 2014. Second, the foreign minister’s visit took place against the backdrop of an increasingly inwardly focused US.

Although Trump’s Africa policy remains shrouded in mystery, he has by no means kept mum on the broader designs of his “America First” foreign policy.

He has questioned the US’s commitment to the alliances that made America great. These include its financial commitments to its European allies through Nato, and its allies in the Asia Pacific such as Japan and Korea.

He has vowed to increase tariffs on imports to the US and to cut aid to countries deemed non-vital to US interests, which raises questions about America’s commitment to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, among others.

On Africa, however, his interactions have been few. Since taking office, Trump has made contact with only two African leaders: Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and President Jacob Zuma. These calls discussed the possibility of an arms deal and strengthened economic and multilateral co-operation, respectively.

His broader views on Africa have been less concrete. What we do know is that last month Trump’s transition team posed questions to the US State Department indicating scepticism towards the value of foreign assistance, particularly to Africa.

On terrorism, the team asked why the US was still fighting al-Shabaab, the terrorist group in Somalia that was behind the Westgate Shopping Mall attacks in Kenya in 2013.

Trump has cast doubt on the US’s commitment to the post-war order it has built in its own image with potentially far-reaching implications also for China.

During the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, Chinese President Xi Jinping ironically defended liberal international trade by stating: “Pursuing protectionism is like locking oneself in a dark room. Wind and rain may be kept outside, but so is light and air.”

The potential implications that these uncertain times hold for Africa are manifold. China has actively worked towards reassuring African countries.

It is fast becoming one of Africa’s preferred partners – as is evident by its observer status at the AU. China’s attraction for African policymakers lies in its “no strings attached” approach with the exception of the acceptance of its “one China” policy.

Ironically, Trump’s transition team also asked of the State Department: “How does US business compete with other nations in Africa? Are we losing out to the Chinese?”

Trump will probably realise the answer soon and recognise that the US risks losing a significant chunk of its hard-fought global influence, including in Africa. Should the trajectory continue, China will use the opportunity to win. — The Star.

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