The ManicaPost
Tafara Shumba Post Correspondent—
January 21, a day that the Bikita by-election was pencilled in for, will be marked as a very important day on the political calendar of Zimbabwe, for many reasons.
The by-election will pit Zanu PF’s candidate, Beauty Chabaya against the Zimbabwe People First’s (ZimPF) candidate, Agrippa Kudakwashe, Murdock Chivasa of the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA), an independent and former MDC-T legislator Heya Shoko and Tanyaradzwa Perence Mukumbo of the Progressive Democrats of Zimbabwe (PDZ).
Although there are five hopefuls in the by-election, it is a two-horse race that will see Chabaya facing off against Gopo, a former Zanu PF national youth league member.
The Bikita by-election will be a microcosm of the 2018 harmonised election where the opposition political parties are mulling a coalition against the ruling party. Joice Mujuru, the unelected leader of ZPF has begged the MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai to support her candidate in the by-election.
Media reports have it that Tsvangirai and Mujuru will jointly address rallies to drum up support for ZimPF candidate in Bikita West constituency. It is yet to be ascertained if Tsvangirai would still accompany his strange bed fellow to Bikita West considering the statements he uttered in an interview with a South African television station, ANN7 on Tuesday.
“A by-election is a by-election, it has nothing to do with the fundamental principles of alliance building,” said Tsvangirai. There is a school of thought that believes Tsvangirai will not support ZimPF for political expediency.
According to this school of thought, Tsvangirai wants ZimPF to lose so that they will not wield any bargaining power in the negotiation process for a coalition.
That’s how egotistical opposition politicians can become if their positions are at stake. That is reminiscent of a folktale chap who was asked to name anything that he wanted God to do for him provided it would be doubled on his neighbour. Overwhelmed by jealous, the man asked God to take off one of his eyes, ears, legs and hands. That’s Tsvangirai for you. He would rather want to see Joice lose the election because he doesn’t want to see anyone taking limelight from him as the face of the opposition.
However, the decision to snub Mujuru can prove to be disastrous in the unlikely event that ZimPF romps to victory. That will raise Mujuru’s bargain power and she will not settle for a lesser status in the negotiation for the coalition.
That victory might even give her false confidence that she can do it alone in the 2018 polls.
However, Mujuru will have to show the world that she is a serious politician who matches the grandeur that she is associated with her in the private media.
It’s unfortunate that Mujuru herself does not know her support strength. She has held a couple of well attended rallies but she knows for sure that she has been addressing rented crowds.
That will be dim-witted for Mujuru to fail to realise that the same people who attend her rallies are the same who attend Tsvangirai’s.
Failure by Mujuru to win the Bikita West constituency will mark the demise of her political career. Nobody will take her serious again and probably Tsvangirai will not even talk of a coalition with her anymore. He will resume to his traditional rhetoric of telling every opposition party to join his “big tent.”
The man sees himself as the Alpha and Omega of opposition politics in Zimbabwe.
There has been a debate on who will lead the envisaged coalition but that question will be naturally answered after ZimPF loses the Bikita West by-election.
Even the traditional benefactors of opposition parties in Zimbabwe are eagerly waiting to see how the by-election will unfold. They want to take the by-election as a litmus test to see if it will pay dividend to invest in ZimPF. The Bikita by-election will give them a position.
There is another school of thought which is convinced that Mujuru will get the support of the MDC-T. According to this school of thought, a Norton scenario will repeat itself in Bikita West. Temba Mliswa won the Norton constituency courtesy of combined support from virtually all opposition political parties.
However, this school of thought is missing one point which Mliswa himself acknowledged.
The Zanu PF candidate for Norton was imposed and the party went into the by-election with a big crack. Even Temba Mliswa attributed his effortless victory to internal rivalry within Zanu PF. “I simply maximised on the in-house fighting in Zanu PF…,” said Mliswa. The candidate for Bikita West was democratically elected.
Of course there is factionalism in Zanu PF and we cannot burry our heads in the sand on this one anymore. It is hoped that the factionalists have seen the potential of factionalism in destroying the revolutionary party. From the way campaigns are going on in Bikita West, they seem to have buried the hatchet and joined forces in defence of the revolutionary party.
They have resolved not to repeat the Norton mistake where rallies were used as platforms to attack rivals, perceived or real.
There was no message until the eleventh hour when youths were promised residential stands.
Zanu PF is entering into the by-election as a united party. They have formed their own internal coalition which is stronger than any other coalition.
The wise shona say ‘makudo ndimamwe angarwira rize asi panhamo chaiyo anorwirana.’ (Baboons might have petty fights over food but can join forces in defence of each when faced with a serious threat.)
Therefore, despite coalescing against Zanu PF, the Bikita West by-election will not be a stroll in the park.
The by-election will be a dry-run of the 2018 elections where the opposition will coalesce against the united Zanu PF.
What will play out on 21 January will be reproduced in 2018, so there is every reason to take the by-election with utmost seriousness.
